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Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes. 

Abstract Coral Sr/Ca records have been widely used to reconstruct and understand past sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Pacific. However, in the eastern equatorial Pacific, coral growth conditions are marginal, and strong El Niño events have led to high mortality, limiting opportunities for coral Sr/Ca‐based SST reconstructions. In this study, we present two ∼25‐year Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca records measured on modernPorites lobatafrom Wolf and Darwin Islands in the northern Galápagos. In these records, we confirm the well‐established relationship between Sr/Ca and SST and investigate the impact of heat stress on this relationship. We demonstrate a weakened relationship between Sr/Ca and SST after a major (Degree Heating Months 9°C‐months) heat stress event during the 1997–1998 El Niño, with a larger response in the Wolf core. However, removing data that covers the 1997–1998 El Niño from calibration does not improve reconstruction statistics. Nevertheless, we find that excluding dataafterthe 1997–1998 El Niño event from the calibration reduces the SST reconstruction error slightly. These results confirm that coral Sr/Ca is a reliable SST proxy in this region, although it can respond adversely to unusual heat stress. We suggest that noise in Sr/Ca‐SST calibrations may be reduced by removing data immediately following large heat extremes. 

A decades-long affair Decadal climate variability and change affects nearly every aspect of our world, including weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and the economy. Predicting its expression is thus of critical importance on multiple fronts. Poweret al. review what is known about tropical Pacific decadal climate variability and change, the degree to which it can be simulated and predicted, and how we might improve our understanding of it. More accurate projections will require longer and more detailed instrumental and paleoclimate records, improved climate models, and better data assimilation methods. —HJS